Washington continuing to out-pace U.S.
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Friday November 9, 2007
A large gathering of economists and business watchers assembled in Lacey today and heard a forecast that shows strength in the state’s economy, even as the nation as a whole is cooling off. Evelina Tainer, chief economist for the state Employment Security Department, said jobs here have grown by 8 percent since the current recovery began back in 2004, while the nation has added about 4.5 percent more paychecks. “We’ve had a surprisingly strong economy and, even in this third year of the recovery, we are showing very good month-over-month growth in employment,” Tainer said. She noted that a major reason for Washington’s strength has been manufacturing’s trend upward, mostly concentrated in aerospace sectors. Construction employment has also been strong and is still growing, though at a much reduced rate of increase now that the residential housing market has softened. This year, the growth in construction is showing in non-residential or commercial projects. Between September 2006 and the same month this year, there are 15,200 more construction jobs in Washington, the biggest growth sector, slightly ahead of professional and business services. “It is scary, in a way, to see this continuing trend of construction payrolls as a share of total payroll, because this sector is traditionally very volatile,” Tainer said. She added that we should see a drop in relative importance for construction jobs against the overall employment base. Nationally, this economist is seeing mid-2008 as the likely “bottom” of the housing swoon, when a “needed adjustment to the housing boom of recent years” should be over. Home prices should turn around and sales also are likely to increase then. Like any self-respecting economist, Dr. Tainer concluded her remarks at the Saint Martin’s University conference with his caveat: “Because of political uncertainties and the fact that anything could happen, 2008 will be very interesting times.”
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